Former Private Post 003

These charts are quite a mess, but everything that is in them is necessary to pinpoint the possible targets for next few days.

According to the butterfly posted in previous entry, USDCHF should go up for 2-3 days… I chose the 0.50Fib ret as more probable target because in the EW count I’m following the swing from latest high (1.0451) is a wave a of B, and as said wave a is in 5 waves, we are most probably dealing with a B wave zig-zag. What does that have to be with the 50% ret? well, a wave b of a zigzag is supposed to be not really big, it should fall somewhere between 0.382-0.618; if we take into account the weekly Fib Pivot Point comes at 1.0347, and that a possible bearish bat would form at 0.886fib of wave 5 of a, those 3 levels make for a strong resistance.

If we are really dealing with a zig-zag, after topping around 1.0440-50, we should go down in wave c of B, that should be either an impulse or and ending diagonal. Since my preferred count is a regular flat for big wave 4, B shouldn’t go below the start of A (1.0185), so that gives us a likely target of 61.8% of wave a for the length of wave c, which comes at 1.0209; very close to round number, so the magnet of 1.02 may make price to dip slightly under it.

There is also the possibility of a bullish butterfly to form at those levels (low 1.02s), but that would depend how high we go first.

Next chart adds an Ichimoku indicator… I’m by no means an expert on Ichi. I just wanted to see the probability of price to bounce down off the 0.382 or 0.50 levels of the 1.0356-1.0235 downswing before heading up for the 1.034s.

We have almost touched 0.382 already, and there’s the blue line there and the weekly Fib support 1 (made resistance for now), so that’s our first resistance. If we clear it then we have the kumo cloud, that price can penetrate briefly and then go down to take impulse again and finally pass the cloud barrier. If in effect we move down a bit from either level, we have the potential for a bearish bat to form later.